Predicting Cultural Trends: Part Deux

Last week we reported an article about the current prediction of trends and how the author, Duncan Watts firmly believes that cultural phenomenon’s are “quite simply, impossible to predict.” An alternative point of view is described by Dr. Alex Bentley, a lecturer at Durham University:

Our studies suggested that popular success does not necessarily require any inherent qualities — it can happen just by luck through the process of people randomly copying each other.

Analyzing thirty years of data from the Billboard Top 200 chart and the “consistency in turnover of baby names and dog breeds”, Bentley’s team realized that there is a very minimal degree of variation and originality in both song-titles and names. And as far as what it means for R&D, Bentley suggests that:

There should be certain aspects of products that are just subject to random drift in terms of popular choice. There is little value in expending R&D into these aspects, since their popularity is inherently unpredictable.  In contrast, other aspects should be subject to independent decisions, i.e., selection, and will be predictable because they track real consumer needs.

More at Influx.

And if you’re interested in reading a follow-up opinion piece of the Duncan Watts article, it’s at FlaggedForFollowup.