June 27, 2007

Three Region Theory For Mobile Phones

Friday sees the launch of the iPhone for Apple. In March 2007, we published a theory about what people wanted from their phone depended on whether the mobile phone came before or after PC based internet was introduced widely to the geographic region. We’ve republished it below. According to this theory, a high spec’d phone like the iPhone’s is going to have an uphill struggle in the US - however, Apple’s design and brand loyalty might help battle that.

OK, so here’s a theory about mobile phones and their use: in terms of phones their are three regions: Region 1 where the internet reached most people before mobile phones (North America); Region 2 where the internet reached most people at the same time as mobile phones (Europe); and then Region 3 where mobile phones reached most people before the internet (Asia, South America, Africa). The timing of the adoption of the internet versus the mobile phone within a region affects the relationship that region’s citizens have with their phone; and therefore should govern the services that will be used there.

This could explain why cell phone services like video are ignored in the US while kids in India use their phones to download music for their mp3 players.

Because people in the US are ultra-connected with web services and the data they can find on the web through their computers, they don’t feel compelled to access the web from their phones. US users are ignoring the web services offered by cellular providers. FastCompany just wrote:

In the past few years cell phone manufacturers have dazzled us with an amazing array of features. Basic games and simple text messaging are now passé. Cameras were once considered a big deal. Now, the latest models come with music players and Internet access. Two percent of subscribers watch television on their phones and we are witnessing the first moves to create programming specifically for cellphones.

Ask anyone in the mobile phone industry and you will get one answer: It’s almost impossible to tell which features are more popular among consumers. Manufacturers, operators, advertisers, and software manufacturers — no one has a precise answer. At best they are guesstimates.

They better be sat down when they hear the news.

Meanwhile, mobile phones for people in Africa, South America and Asia is the internet. Business Week reports that in India they’re using their phones to buy music for their music players:

If you want to understand the explosive growth in India’s digital music download scene, check out the buying habits of college-bound Dipanjali Singh. The 17-year-old has a $14-a-month prepaid card for purchases on her $386 Motorola Ming smart phone, and she uses about 50% of it to feed her ravenous appetite for cutting-edge pop music.

At any given moment, Singh has a repertoire of 50 songs from various artists (her current passion is San Francisco post-grunge band Third Eye Blind) downloaded to her handset directly from the Internet. She also transfers her tunes to her iPod.

…for handset makers and Indian telcos, the digital music download craze is a huge and positive development. Downloadable ring tones—some 300,000 are digitally transmitted to handsets every day in India—are already a $45 million-a-year business set to grow at double-digit levels the rest of the decade. Ring tones also generate about 40% of the data revenues for India’s big wireless operators such as Bharti Airtel and Reliance Communications.

While we should be careful to get too excited about a story on the rare Indian who can actually afford an iPod and a Ming, it’s still a good indicator of future trends in southern Asia.

In Africa, we’ve seen how the mobile phone is revolutionizing economies. We wrote only the other day about mobile banking in Kenya and Paul Mason’s video report for the BBC called ‘From Matatu to the Masai via mobile’ is one of the most important reports on the power of the mobile phone published this year.

Meanwhile in Europe the phone seems to supplement web experiences. When European phone users aren’t busy sending instant texts to each other, they’re receiving alerts from sites and services they signed up to via a website.

So what does this mean for the US?

Maybe it means that there will never be a “third screen” in the US. Or not for a long while. Today’s digital services that have been designed to be used via the phone may never be truly used. Reuters reports that Yahoo Mail and Yahoo Messenger will be available to be downloaded onto several Virgin Mobile handsets. But will anyone bother? Engadget reports that Korean electronics company LG At least 10 new “LG-Google handsets” will start shipping globally in 2007, each with a preload of Google Maps, Gmail, and Blogger mobile applications. But with they ever get used, especially if we consider the usage charges associated with data-packets?

Of course, the US did create one big mobile application: the Blackberry. But the Blackberry became popular in the US before an early adopter mobile phone markets like Europe because the Blackberry provides email in the same way you’d use email at your computer when you’re away from your computer. It’s a duplication of your email program, not an evolution in communication design. A similar argument could be given for the popularity of the Sidekick.

What’s happening in the US is a gold rush to offer services that may work in other countries. But maybe these services shouldn’t be offered at all. There’s a rumor that the Helio party-phone has only 10,000 subscribers and that Amp’d Mobile is doing poorly too. Even more ‘cool’ ads on the sides of buildings may not change this: Phones that help you locate friends and parties with social services will probably not work in a country that would rather pick up the phone than send an SMS text. If we consider this ‘3 Nation’ theory,maybe Helio and Amp’d is the wrong side of the equator and should be in South America instead.

A telecoms company needs to deliver the right services for the right market not shoehorn services that seemed to be a good idea at the time. Create phone services for Region 1 countries (US, Canada), make supplemental services for Region 2 countries (Europe, Australia) make mobile services for Region 3 countries (Asia, South America, Africa).

Just a theory.

Article categories: Electronics & Gadgets, Our Terms Not Yours, Telecom, Transport & Travel, Trends In Africa, Web & Technology