As some of you know, PSFK began as a website project where Simon King and I wrote about the interesting ideas we were noticing around the world. It was something we did for the love of it. And one day a company phoned us up (Anheuser Busch) and asked us for our advice. That really started PSFK LLC - the trends and innovation company that fuels this site. As we have developed our offering for PSFK consultancy over the last few years, the more we have learned about the market we work in and the reaction that buyers have to trend services.
The key learning has been this: there’s something wrong in the trends business. It’s broken. It’s broken by lack of imagination, lack of collaboration and secrecy. Below we’ve listed some major areas that need fixing, not for our competitive sake, but for an industry to evolve and become useful enough to inspire its clients to make things better.
Arrogance and Control
Trends services have an unhealthy reliance on control, restriction of information and perception. Trends companies put up gates that guard this mystical information that somehow only they could gather. This presentation from Henley Center’s d_Code is an example of how the trends industry attempts to scare companies into thinking how little they know. There’s no explanation of why d_code knows better, just that they somehow know a lot more than you do (and they’ve got the graphic designer to prove it). AgencySpy gave this great reaction to the presentation in 2007:
“No ideas. No dissection of new cultural movements to help you on your way. No outlay of creatives, organizations, thinkers that are shaking up the underground to shape the future. Nada. Every one of their clients should feel like they just got punk’d.”
Death Of Creativity
Another problem with the sector is that having spent a lot of money subscribing to a specific trends service, companies are hesitant not to use it. WGSN has got itself in the monopolistic position where the fashion industry has accepted that if you don’t subscribe to their service, you’re not in the game. As we’ve argued before, if everyone’s looking at the same information for inspiration, you’re going to get the same product.
Lack Of Critical Judgement
The lack of transparency and walled-garden offering means that trends services’ opinion and recommendations can’t be discussed, criticized or judged. As their views aren’t open, there’s no way to check or challenge their validity. What really is in the Cassandra Report? Why are the Intelligence Group such experts on youth? (Especially if they use the image at the top of this article on their webpage?? ;)
We’re in a digital world where conversations are free - but trends services aren’t willing to be honest about where they got their judgments from. Too many companies and their ad agencies are cut and pasting their unchecked judgments into their powerpoint documents to make significant strategic decisions.
You’ve Made Your Bed, Now Rely On It
Compounding these problems is the cost that budgets get used up buying data from single sources. For a handful of log-in passwords, a company pays $20,000 for WGSN and $35,000 for Iconoculture. The thing is, that if your boss has paid that much for you to use the service, then it’s likely that you’re going to be forced to use it whether you like it or not. We hear stories that designers at H&M are forced to spend 5 hours a week on WGSN (Is that why H&M is rather off the boil these days?).
And let’s remember, when you spend that much money you feel that you have to start using their findings as gospel. Or someone else at work will.
Deciding What The Trend Is, Then Taking You To Its Grave
Another problem with the trends industry is that it doesn’t half like to tell you what the trends are, then spends a lot of time reminding you how right they were with new examples. You know how it is: you buy the 2008 report and then you get monthly updates on the same trends that were identified at the start of the year. The problem is that by working like that you’re immediately providing focus on data that might not really be reflecting change. Faith Popcorn, and her BrainReserve have been trading on selected ‘trends’ for ages now and Iconoculture are somehow following 45 trends. That means they’re destined to either report on the weird (Iconoculture’s Evolutionaries - “People finding new paths to fulfillment through an uncanny native intelligence combined with an intuitive understanding of paradigm-shifting perspectives, skills, and insights”) to the preaching (BrainReserve’s dated Cocooning - “The need to protect oneself from the harsh, unpredictable realities of the outside world.”) or the bland (Wellville - “A holistic (mind, body, spirit) approach to living that seeks total wellbeing through balance within self, community, and world.”).
Following set trends means that companies like Brainreserve and Iconoculture have trouble identifying the new.
The Blogosphere’s Love Of Novelty
Now to counter all these walled garden trends services and avoid these costs is to scan the blogs each day. And there’s a hell of a lot of information out there for you to gather (or get your ad agency’s intern to gather) - and a lot can be learned from the right analysis and pattern recognition. The problem with the blogosphere is that it’s too distracted by novelty. And novelty can kill innovation. Consider how far the idea behind the rolling-bench dispersed last week: from Coolhunting to Josh Spear and beyond. It’s a bench with a seat that can be rolled round so that your backside can always be dry. It’s not innovation. It’s not a manifestation of a trend. It’s a gimmick. It’s novelty and picked up because it’s different, not because it’s a good idea or could even work en masse in real life (And even if you’re a little more discerning, you’re still in trouble because trends newsletters are famous for spreading novelty not real ideas).
The Trends Industry Love Of Novelty
Ok, ok - it’s not only the blogs. It’s the industry too. The love of novelty can probably be summed up by this image about ‘Atmosfear’ on the BrainReserve’s site.
The Ad Agencies Make Their Play
And then you get the services from the ad agencies. And sure, they’re all fun and funky and well designed and all but at the end of the day, ad agencies really are in the game to make ads - not help your business innovate. And there are deeper problems we know of - the staff your agency used to do trend research tend to be the young, hip things who might know what’s hot in Hoxton, but they’ve only just turned up as interns. Of all the trend data out there, Ad Agency reports should be the most distrusted (unless you’re looking to make a shiny TV ad campaign).
Using Consumer Research To Identify Trends
There are also a lot of Market Research companies that shouldn’t be in the trends and innovation business. There’s a misunderstanding in the market that consumer research will help you innovate. Consumer research helps you optimize, not innovate. Consumers can help you understand how to improve now, but they can’t help you with the tomorrow.
Lack Of Organizational Change
While one could argue that the fact that existing trends services significantly reduces creativity, differentiation and innovation - these issues combined aren’t as problematic as the this one: companies don’t know how to use trend data to create organizational change.
The frustration for professionals that buy these services is that they are either understaffed or ill-equipped to use the data to make change. It doesn’t really matter how good or bad trend data is. Companies accept that they need to be future forward but many just don’t know how to work in a way that allows this. There’s a major issue here that stops companies from making things better and trend services are not rising to the challenge to assist them.
In Summary, the trends business is a walled business that uses smoke and mirrors to protect it. It preaches from on high what the trends are without much transparency about what their recommendations were based on. In an era of Google inspired freedom of information, these businesses surely can’t continue to hide data that is already in the public domain. There’s an opportunity to really be open in the trends business, to bring in new players that want to work together, force the old players to change their ways; and work collaboratively with clients. More importantly, we need to find a way together to create and share a tool for organizational change that is strategic in process, transparent in delivery yet flexible enough to be inspired by trends data every single day.
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What an incisively insightful post!
I couldn’t agree more. “Trend” has joined the strangely sheltered zone of “art” and “religion” where it enjoys a “question-me-at-your-peril”-type of respect. I’ve sat through so many tedious presentations by “coolhunters”, “trendspotters”, “youth experts” where everything from eating ice cream to taking a dump has been labelled “a trend”. The word suffers from too much vagueness and too much infatuation from people whilst our industry suffers from non-existent barriers to entry. The tidal wave of recession will surely wash away some of the golddiggers. I look forward to keep reading PSFK on the other side.
February 4th, 2008 at 6:18 pm
You guys are such hypocrites - you talk about novelty but you guys constantly feature novelty picked up from other sources. While some of your points are valid, I find your not the right authority to make such a statement. You guys spend more time being negative (oh why no advertisers are coming on board to god knows what else you bang an about)
A successful site with comments open shows how communicative they are with your posts but PSK comments are constantly 0, hardly anybody interacts here and I feel its because your not really bringing anything new to the table. If they were, your audience would interact.
I’d be interested to see what others have to say here as at least you might get the trends industry talking. Personally I find trendwatching.com by far the most informative and knowledgeable trends site there is. They constantly deliver
February 4th, 2008 at 7:28 pm
One thing I will say is that I have always been impressed with Piers’ ability to share insights and “trends” in a very open, collaborative and unpretentious way. Which is probably why PSFK has been so successful.
Some of these mofos take themselves WAYYYY too seriously.
February 4th, 2008 at 7:57 pm
tony, tony: your, you’re…
February 4th, 2008 at 10:09 pm
I think you must be confused on my motives, as I certainly didn’t start JoshSpear.com as a ‘trend site’, it just so happen my taste was, well, thought by many to be trendy. Of every site you listed, I think mine and a very few others are probably the only that started as independent projects– not as businesses to make money, or more importantly “sell” trend services– and I’ve kept it as independent and uncommercial as possible.
I started my site as a place to post things I liked. More than 4 years later, on trend or off, my team and I continue to share things we appreciate in the world of art, design, travel, gadgets, and so on. Novel, or not– it’s about what we’re into and things that makes us smile.
On top of that, I don’t even do or sell ‘trend services’, nor do I use my site to promote my professional life– something this site, in my opinion has done an overwhelming amount of in the past 6 months of its life.
I like PSFK, and will continue to browse it as I find it to be a great aggregate of news, with the occasional opinion piece– but really Piers, you missed the mark on your comment about my site this time in a big way.
Josh Spear
February 4th, 2008 at 10:22 pm
Josh,
The comment is not a criticism of yourself or your company. We’re not suggesting that you sell trends services at all.
I do criticize the Rolling Bench article you published. Companies use some of the more fun stuff - or novelty - as serious trends data. We regularly reference your site - you know we admire it. I do think that the Rolling Bench is one of the most tedious ideas that has been published by the blogosphere recently, though.
February 4th, 2008 at 10:47 pm
Piers,
I must have missed the part where this site became the holy grail for trends data– and a place that criticized others sites, particuarly ones that are as fun lovin’ and un-serious as mine.
I’ll keep that in mind as I plan world domination without you.
Josh
February 4th, 2008 at 10:59 pm
And to quote the author of that post, when she read my comment, she said:
“I like the rolling bench, so what the *** ever…”
I, as does everyone who has emailed me to go run and check out PSFK’s poke at us, second that.
:)
February 4th, 2008 at 11:00 pm
Josh Spear and Coolhunting are not trend sites. They’re shopping guides at worst and at best, they provide cultural updates. Nothing more.
As for trend services, I fully agree that one should be wary. Charlatans abound. Take Iconoculture - they’re not tracking 45 “trends.” What they are actually tracking are news items for specific consumer groups (boomers, tweens, etc.). They then throw up data onto the site, mix it with some stats they got off marketingcharts.com and Voila!. They make their cash (and they aren’t cheap) off the mystery of trends, pretty graphics and a mass amount of always updated data (we’re updating the site, so we must be doing something, we must be tapped in). I’m sure that they have some excellent staff buried in their cubicles, but what they’re offering clients is bollocks on the site and through one-on-one sessions is bare bones. I’m using Iconoculture as an example, but there are many many companies playing this game.
My suggestion to any brand or ad agency looking for insights - hire consultants or small teams who can not only talk to you about their insights, but who can also offer you ideas on how to implement and work them into your overall mission.
Your next move is to hire an expert or two on deep, labyrinthine industries like gaming or mobile, who can keep you tapped into consumer behaviors, as well as new tech, new applications, changing laws, etc.
This isn’t rocket science. Don’t be scared by the words trends. Don’t get sucked into the show and dance of many “trend companies.”
February 5th, 2008 at 2:14 am
That was quite the unfocused ramble. About one paragraph in I was already expecting the you state this is your last post and gracefully bow out of the hypocritical trends world.
February 5th, 2008 at 2:56 am
Thanks for the article, unfortunately i cannot understand 100% but i understand your point of wiew.
February 5th, 2008 at 4:52 am
There is no secret to trend forecasting just a lack of understanding of how to use it.
Sites such as Josh Rubin and PSFK are good sources of information and form part of the trends process. As are trend forecasting services, blogs, magazines, books, exhibtions, films etc etc.
What you then do with this information and how you analyse it is what matters.
Any wise company will employ a creative thinker to assimilate all the information and make it relevant to their market or brand.
Intelligent thinking is whats needed and indeed more sharing of information, not bitchy comments and back biting.
In the words of Paul Smith ‘You can find inspiration in everything and if you cant you are not looking’.
February 5th, 2008 at 5:57 am
Don’t be too harsh on Piers - PSFK is a good trends site and he’s kind enough to give his opinion. There’s much that’s true here, but I would like to pick on a couple of points.
I work in an ad agency and “do Trends”, precisely because the task is valuable. All the blogs mentioned here, including PSFK are trend aggregators. They have passed through the filters of someone else’s mind. They’re interesting, and occasionally insightful. Often they are without practical use.
Professional trend watching services (such as d_code) you can take with a pinch of salt. Some of them read like the sleeve notes from 1970s concept albums.
Financial institutions analyse trends too. If there was no value in it then we wouldn’t do it. We have to know in which direction our clients’ sectors are headed. We also need to know where the consumers are going. Ask any strategic planner.
I think there’s a deal too much counterknowledge out there that filters into the trend watching sphere. I’m sure other trend watchers have their own tried-and-tested methods but I’m probably old-fashioned in thinking that primary research and regular, objective, consumption of mass media combined with good pattern-recognition works well.
February 5th, 2008 at 7:07 am
You may be right, the trends business lacks imagination. But I would say that industry narcissism or industry hating is just as unimaginative.
PSFK, stop being on the defensive…
February 5th, 2008 at 7:56 am
I agree with Piers.
One point though, I think for some reason there has become some kind of breakdown between those who ‘do trends’ and then those whose jobs entail being insightful, or strategic - for which they must understand and constantly be looking for new manifestations of consumer (or just plain human) awareness. Being a ‘trends forecaster’ certainly sounds pretty damn interesting compared to ’strategist’, but it can be incredibly limiting in practice - as Piers pointed out. Trends forecasting is an old art… well, relatively old. Future Laboratory and Li Edelkoort have been at it for years - proof that the fashion industry has seen its share. But it was those people (and I would count myself here for a while) who thought anyone with a good eye, some research skills and a dash of cool, could do forecasting - which is a whole different thing than ‘trends spotting’ - who have diluted the practice … blogs made it seem easy, as though trends spotting was the same as trend forecasting - but as we know, this is FAR from the case. The creative industries will need trends forecasters, but it’s a bit silly how much money gets spent on trend watch documents and so-called ‘research’….
I think the shame is that people are actually forgetting about forecasting, waiting until it’s too late, reporting on the colour or gadget du jour, and then getting possessive about their findings, as though the blog to post the most cool new things gets the prize. The problem, though, is that all this obsessing about today, we are forgetting about tomorrow, or next year, or the next decade… at least on a mainstream level.
That being said, there is value in reporting new things and activities - but so often the ‘report’ just kind of ‘points’ to something, without going into detail about its significance, or implications for XYorZ industry, design, people, politics, etc. Some trend-spotters and bloggers do this, but it’s pretty much limited to an old-school set of strategists and insights managers and a few ‘members-only’ forecasting sites. I would put Russell Davies, Richard Huntington, Iain Tate, Faris Yacob, Grant McCracken, LifeSigns and a few others - in this camp. For the most part they lack snazzy sites, and what’s really wonderful is that they don’t seem to derive their intellectual or blogging value from how much cool stuff they see (or are sent via press releases).
We do need ‘pointers’ though. They’re useful tools and resources for finding examples. But the mistake is to take them as a end in themselves.
And I’m sure most will agree, some of the most interesting trends are not happening in Hoxton - and those who immerse themselves in that particular ‘hip East London culture’ may be missing the beat when it comes to the kinds of trends effecting people in other parts of the world - heck - other parts of the city!
How wonderful it would be for so many of these so-called ‘trends spotters’ or ‘pointers’ to actually DO something - giant picnics or craft workshops to illustrate the new trends they’re unearthing! Collaborative bake-offs or local pub craft nights where you can’t just say how cool you are by how many things you’ve seen or read about or had an invite to - but bringing these ideas together without the price tag of a hefty trends conference. I think coffee mornings and likemind are meant to do this - but they fall short of the mark because they seem, for the most part, to be about networking and a bit of a chat.
Okay, that was a bit a rant … sorry… I’ll stop now before I confuse anyone else.
February 5th, 2008 at 8:25 am
Ohh is a bit of a trend for trends isn’t there?
February 5th, 2008 at 9:08 am
Who knew that predicting the future would be so difficult?
Applying trend information is the $$$-quest. Understanding how the dots connect in the ether so we are able to predict consumer/human behavior. To Piers points, that is where a lot of trend company’s/info falls down. But I wonder who really is at fault? (and how much we want to admit where the fault actually lies?)
Is it the fault of the trend data producers that they don’t go far enough with their findings or is it the laziness of people who use them, who don’t take it for what it is and grow from there?
February 5th, 2008 at 10:49 am
I think one of the problems with amateur trend hunting is that it can knowingly or unknowingly be taken as gospel, and there is a fear - on the part of trend hunters - of being wrong. So it seems that rather than being wrong, they pass no judgments and apply to very little analysis to their findings.
Being ‘right’ takes far greater effort, and can get pretty pricey! No wonder companies that do it don’t want to share their findings for free!
And let’s remember “data, information, knowledge, insight” in that order…. interesting that we’re stuck talking about ‘DATA’.
February 5th, 2008 at 11:26 am
I don’t know about the trends business and frankly draw my own conclusions from a number of sources anyway. But I am a fan of PSFK and glad that they have the guts to speak their mind and prompt conversation (and spark controversy apparently)….it keeps us all on our toes and keeps the ideas flowing openly and transparently.
Thanks, PSFK.
February 5th, 2008 at 11:56 am
@ Herb - you mean, “you can take a horse to water but you can’t make it drink”?
@ Tony. 20?
As for my trend insights, I like a pinch of Spice as I contemplate the Golden Path.
February 5th, 2008 at 12:11 pm
Love the point of this article. Being a trend spotter is like being God. His word is Truth and who can question it? We use them to support points we want to make but you’d have to be a bit of an idiot to get your ideas from them.
February 5th, 2008 at 12:19 pm
So, this is an interesting post.
First I’d like to challenge the first point. I hardly see a brief. I do see a sales pitch..albeit aggressive and controlling. A pitch. What’s all the fuss (Agency Spy)?
Second, the summary paragraph really describes the practice of an awful trend firm…not the industry. Firms have the right to protect their turf and drum up sales. The brands/corporations who understand the value of trending don’t keep firms like ones described in this paragraph on their radar anyway.
The bigger issues lie around organizational change; the translation of said insights into uniquely, innovative results at the right phase of the design process. At the end of the day, it doesn’t matter where the trend came from (transparency) or how many people subscribe (death of creativity). What matters is how the said insights bring value (perceived or actual) to the end product.
It’s super important to work with someone (client) who knows when trend information is useful, what to extract, how to influence decision makers. I believe the industry becomes more valuable if there was an assurance of these sorts of post trend dump activities. Also, keep in mind that a strong brand/positioning will help filter, absorb, and shape trend data. Be prepared to help the guys who don’t have this down…or the value goes right out the window.
February 5th, 2008 at 2:50 pm
Isn’t that the pot calling the kettle black.
-The antiguru (http://diytrendforecaster.blogspot.com)
February 5th, 2008 at 2:50 pm
Great post. The biggest issue with trend researchers in general is that they need to constantly “make up” new trends by threading together some data to stay in business. For example the book MicroTrends is waaaaaayyyy to granular and the trend names are ridiculous. Microtrends are NOISE, these are the trends that get picked up by journalists looking for an easy story. Take a few steps back and look at the larger social trends, and read through ‘Anatomy of a Trend’ to really understand what a mega trend is. Also read ‘Fooled by randomness’ as it will change your perspective on how to assimilate information.
February 5th, 2008 at 5:39 pm
i’m still trying to remember whether *the cassandra report* cites, or is cited by, *the emperor’s report on clothing and fashion*…
February 5th, 2008 at 5:42 pm
I was expecting to disagree with you, Piers, but I’d say you’re about 80% dead-on. I’ve read trend reports daily for the last seven years, and they generally fail to be useful to most clients because they don’t separate out what is actually a trend (strategic) from what is merely a fad. More importantly, they never ask “Why?” which ought to be the key focus of their research.
February 5th, 2008 at 6:41 pm
A lot of so called trends seem to be little more than brain dumps of things seen that could perhaps become, or the author would like to see become, trends. They certainly are not all “a GENERAL development or change in a situation or in a way that people are behaving” (Cambridge Dictionery Definition of the word Trend). I think the word general is key in this discussion.
I also agree that more opinion about the implications of trends and the opportunities they may present would be of great interest. Discussions are also good.
All that said I read many trend sites, or various degrees of usefulness, to stimulate the mind, innovate, and hope to create trends. And I mix this information with that from the regular media, market research, hear say etc. Information from various sources thrown into a ´blender´ I suppose. Then I try to make sense of it all. It is hard to do, but that is what makes doing it important. It is a source of competitive advantage for sure.
February 5th, 2008 at 7:01 pm
wow. quite the dialog you’ve sparked, piers. i do sort of agree with you - a lot of companies out there peddle meaningless information and fool clients into thinking it’s critical.
however, many of the sites at which you point the finger - josh spear’s for instance - isn’t charging money for the information. his site, like yours, is free and open to the public. as is trendwatching/springwise.
i haven’t ever read one of the super-expensive trend reports you mention, but i imagine they’re full of useless information… especially because most of the data points they’re using are freely available on the web. i would like to think that the successful trend company is one that actually helps its clients ignore the noise and focus on relevant data points… that’s what i do in my work, anyway.
i agree with herb - part of the blame is with the organizations that use these services and research… (the problem being they don’t actually use these services and research properly). they’re just looking at the data, the powerpoints, the magazines, the blogs, and they’re not really thinking about it. most of the companies i’ve worked with in the past have this problem. i try to help them better integrate & internalize data and research so that they can draw conclusions that will result in meaningful improvements to their offerings, which will increase the value of their offerings for their customers.
blast. now i am rambling.
the bottom line is this: you’re sort of right, but i’m sort of insulted by your tone and by the fact that you point the finger (somewhat hypocritically) at other companies/blogs… your point would have been better delivered if it had been a little less tempermental, i think. remember, always re-read before you click “publish.”
February 5th, 2008 at 7:17 pm
You’re my new hero.
February 5th, 2008 at 9:50 pm
I like the comments, Iconoculture’s problem is they sell you on their consumer strategists, those are the people you have the phone call with, which is thier main product, thier website is secondary. The strategists are usually pretty knowlegable but the problem is there are only a handfull of them. Instead you end up on a call with an “associate strategist” which is nothing more than a 25 year old who knows no more about trends than a person off the street would. They claim to do primary research but its all secondary and they just make up their macrotrends, many of which are very similar.
February 5th, 2008 at 10:28 pm
“spreading novelty not real ideas” is in fact the business of many well-known sites and blogs. But that is not exactly trend reporting or trend analysis. I definitely agree that
“blogs made it seem easy, as though trends spotting was the same as trend forecasting - but as we know, this is FAR from the case.”
BUT: trendspotting made by numerious bloggers (like me) is often the basis for the trendforcasting made by “many companies and their ad agencies are cut and pasting their unchecked judgments into their powerpoint documents to make significant strategic decisions” and charge companies for that.
One way to make things transparent is to acompany each trend forcast with the analysis on the basis of which it was made. Because I believe that trends are characterizing the state of our society and the direction where we are going, they are a logical consequence of that. Short lived novelties and fashions do not make trends.
February 6th, 2008 at 6:12 am
JKHK, agree with you blasted rambling. And I’ve always wondered, why is it so hard to get an adoption curve out of a trend company?
Which leads me to wonder, how are trend forecasters accountable? I mean, yes, it is my fault if I don’t use your data correctly but I’d like to know that tomorrow when I incorporate your wonderful trends into a beautiful strategic insight that they are going to be something more than just dust in the wind.
Now I’m venting and rambling…
February 6th, 2008 at 9:41 am
Well amusingly, of course, after PSFK angrily considered how far afield the harmless rolling-bench was blogged last week, the Balenciaga picture we ran yesterday just showed up on the PSFK site, without PSFK even changing the name of our .jpg.
Granted, the original is WWD, but we should probably be consistent in our ranting.
And, I certainly think Piers’ comments about trends are more valid that the opposite ones which Google says he used to have. So it’s all good.
Keep up the good work.
February 6th, 2008 at 1:55 pm
2 comments.
one, bravo for putting this out there. cheers for speaking up and out. starting a true discussion. one that’s relevant and a little alarming :)
two, as someone ‘young’ and less experienced in the marketing communications/comms/trend etc business, these points give me worthwhile points to consider. as i get a grasp of what a trend/insight is, it helps to hear what groups like PSFK (and others here) think.
February 8th, 2008 at 1:57 pm
Great post, mainly for the balls to put it out there in such a provocative fashion. Seems interesting to me that Piers chose to post this at the same time that the marketing blogosphere has been so up in arms about the Duncan Watts stuff in Fast Company. If trend companies are bollocks and influencers don’t really influence, are we just left with mass marketing and crap superbowl ads?
February 8th, 2008 at 4:55 pm
The key word in the headline is “business.” Once you decide to make money on something (with trends no exception), expect the primping and pimping to begin. Trends companies have two things to offer: information and advice on what to do with that information. Clients have different levels of ability to “get it.” Thus, all those positionings and “methodologies” meant to make qual look more like science than the art it is. The “sssshhhhh … it’s proprietary” may come off as salesy mystique, but the real point is the bottom line. You can’t sell what you don’t think you own.
The trends business is fast growing up in the shadow of advertising/marketing firms ultimately more interested in M&A than in serving clients. There ARE a lot of trendies out there doing great work, inside and outside the companies you call out, and they’re the ones who have the chance to start practicing what they preach about embracing the open source collaboration of shared intellectual spaces. Drawing new boundaries about what clients should legitimately pay for won’t make as much money for business owners in the short-run, but it’s the business model that actually has a future.
February 9th, 2008 at 1:04 pm
On his regular podcast, Johnnie Moore invited myself and Sean Howard to discuss issues we had raised in the trends and market research business. I go over the points I raised in the opinion piece The Problem With The Trends (Business) and brainstorm with Sean and Johnnie about how to get clients and users of trends data engaged.
Johnnie Moore’s Podcast : Expert insight or human engagement?
http://www.johnniemoore.com/blog/archives/001953.php
February 10th, 2008 at 1:01 pm
Well done Piers, that was good.
The trends game has become a farce. See something, call it a trend, go into a company, sell a presentation and some strategic recommendations and walk away smiling.
The naivety will end at some point.
February 13th, 2008 at 10:40 am
Piers,
I am way late responding to this post, but wanted to let you know that your thinking is A-one.
For those willing to spend time online, as well as listening to and watching people outside of their own usual social circles, trend info is there for the taking.
I lament the fact that cultural shifts were labeled trends. The word is often confused with fad.
Attempting to determine how trends will impact our everyday lives is a mighty challenge.
My biggest gripe with trendies is that
they often promote their own personal social and political agendas rather than report what’s actually happening.
Thanks again for your insight,
bonnie
Richmond, VA
USA
June 4th, 2008 at 9:58 pm