I am way late responding to this post, but wanted to let you know that your thinking is A-one.

For those willing to spend time online, as well as listening to and watching people outside of their own usual social circles, trend info is there for the taking.

I lament the fact that cultural shifts were labeled trends. The word is often confused with fad.

Attempting to determine how trends will impact our everyday lives is a mighty challenge.

My biggest gripe with trendies is that
they often promote their own personal social and political agendas rather than report what’s actually happening.

Thanks again for your insight,

bonnie
Richmond, VA
USA

Johnnie Moore’s Podcast : Expert insight or human engagement?

http://www.johnniemoore.com/blog/archives/001953.php

The trends business is fast growing up in the shadow of advertising/marketing firms ultimately more interested in M&A than in serving clients. There ARE a lot of trendies out there doing great work, inside and outside the companies you call out, and they’re the ones who have the chance to start practicing what they preach about embracing the open source collaboration of shared intellectual spaces. Drawing new boundaries about what clients should legitimately pay for won’t make as much money for business owners in the short-run, but it’s the business model that actually has a future.

one, bravo for putting this out there. cheers for speaking up and out. starting a true discussion. one that’s relevant and a little alarming :)

two, as someone ‘young’ and less experienced in the marketing communications/comms/trend etc business, these points give me worthwhile points to consider. as i get a grasp of what a trend/insight is, it helps to hear what groups like PSFK (and others here) think.

Granted, the original is WWD, but we should probably be consistent in our ranting.

And, I certainly think Piers’ comments about trends are more valid that the opposite ones which Google says he used to have. So it’s all good.

Keep up the good work.

Which leads me to wonder, how are trend forecasters accountable? I mean, yes, it is my fault if I don’t use your data correctly but I’d like to know that tomorrow when I incorporate your wonderful trends into a beautiful strategic insight that they are going to be something more than just dust in the wind.

Now I’m venting and rambling…

however, many of the sites at which you point the finger – josh spear’s for instance – isn’t charging money for the information. his site, like yours, is free and open to the public. as is trendwatching/springwise.

i haven’t ever read one of the super-expensive trend reports you mention, but i imagine they’re full of useless information… especially because most of the data points they’re using are freely available on the web. i would like to think that the successful trend company is one that actually helps its clients ignore the noise and focus on relevant data points… that’s what i do in my work, anyway.

i agree with herb – part of the blame is with the organizations that use these services and research… (the problem being they don’t actually use these services and research properly). they’re just looking at the data, the powerpoints, the magazines, the blogs, and they’re not really thinking about it. most of the companies i’ve worked with in the past have this problem. i try to help them better integrate & internalize data and research so that they can draw conclusions that will result in meaningful improvements to their offerings, which will increase the value of their offerings for their customers.

blast. now i am rambling.

the bottom line is this: you’re sort of right, but i’m sort of insulted by your tone and by the fact that you point the finger (somewhat hypocritically) at other companies/blogs… your point would have been better delivered if it had been a little less tempermental, i think. remember, always re-read before you click “publish.”

I also agree that more opinion about the implications of trends and the opportunities they may present would be of great interest. Discussions are also good.

All that said I read many trend sites, or various degrees of usefulness, to stimulate the mind, innovate, and hope to create trends. And I mix this information with that from the regular media, market research, hear say etc. Information from various sources thrown into a ´blender´ I suppose. Then I try to make sense of it all. It is hard to do, but that is what makes doing it important. It is a source of competitive advantage for sure.

-The antiguru (http://diytrendforecaster.blogspot.com)

First I’d like to challenge the first point. I hardly see a brief. I do see a sales pitch..albeit aggressive and controlling. A pitch. What’s all the fuss (Agency Spy)?

Second, the summary paragraph really describes the practice of an awful trend firm…not the industry. Firms have the right to protect their turf and drum up sales. The brands/corporations who understand the value of trending don’t keep firms like ones described in this paragraph on their radar anyway.

The bigger issues lie around organizational change; the translation of said insights into uniquely, innovative results at the right phase of the design process. At the end of the day, it doesn’t matter where the trend came from (transparency) or how many people subscribe (death of creativity). What matters is how the said insights bring value (perceived or actual) to the end product.

It’s super important to work with someone (client) who knows when trend information is useful, what to extract, how to influence decision makers. I believe the industry becomes more valuable if there was an assurance of these sorts of post trend dump activities. Also, keep in mind that a strong brand/positioning will help filter, absorb, and shape trend data. Be prepared to help the guys who don’t have this down…or the value goes right out the window.

@ Tony. 20?

As for my trend insights, I like a pinch of Spice as I contemplate the Golden Path.