The Importance Of Innovation’s “Long Nose”

Bill Buxton, Principal Scientist at Microsoft Research, has written a fascinating essay about what he calls the “long nose of innovation.” Using a new interpretation of Chris Anderson’s long tail diagram as a focal point for his theory, Buxton explains that most innovation happens over a long period of time before spiking into an “aha!” moment of public consciousness and wonderment (such as the iPad).

He explains that the really important part of innovation is the constant refinement of already-good ideas:

Any technology that is going to have significant impact over the next 10 years is already at least 10 years old. That doesn’t imply that the 10-year-old technologies we might draw from are mature or that we understand their implications; rather, just the basic concept is known, or knowable to those who care to look.

…

The heart of the innovation process has to do with prospecting, mining, refining, and goldsmithing. Knowing how and where to look and recognizing gold when you find it is just the start.

…

To my mind, at least, those who can shorten the nose by 10% to 20% make at least as great a contribution as those who had the initial idea. And if nothing else, long noses are great for sniffing out those great ideas sitting there neglected, just waiting to be exploited.

BusinessWeek: “The Long Nose of Innovation”