The Verifier Approach
To solve this problem, a naval officer called John Craven created a series of scenarios to explain what had happened to the Scorpion. He then asked an eclectic mix of experts, such as mathmaticians, salvage men and submarine specialists to guess which of the scenarios was most likely. The experts guessed the speed the sub was going, why it ran into trouble and the steepness of the decent and other relevant information. Craven didn’t select any one of the guesses, but took the guesses together and applied Bayes’s theorum to them to get essentially the mean location of the sub.
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