Social Media As Soothsayer, Predicting Future Outcomes
HP's Social Computing Lab recently published a paper that details how the analysis of Twitter streams can accurately predict future outcomes.
We’ve watched as social networking services like Twitter have evolved beyond simple chatter among friends into informational hubs, able to provide breaking news and diagnose of a host of municipal issues like traffic and public transit in real-time, but what can these sites tell us about things that haven’t happened yet? A recently published paper by HP’s Social Computing Lab titled Predicting the Future With Social Media discovered that by analyzing Twitter streams for mentions of upcoming movies, researchers could accurately determine future revenues. This process became even more exact when factoring in how favorable the references were. The algorithm was so precise in fact, that it outperformed a leading industry firm, the Hollywood Stock Exchange.